Jacksonville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

033
FXUS62 KMHX 031503
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1003 AM EST Tue Dec 3 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Cold, dry high pressure will remain in control through Wednesday.
Below normal temperatures will continue with near record lows
possible tonight into Wednesday morning. A strong front will
move through Thursday with high pressure building back over the
area Friday into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
As of 10 AM Tue... Latest obs and satellite imagery shows
previously mentioned weak surface low that brought a few
flurries to our southern counties earlier this morning
currently offshore about 100 miles south of Wilmington, NC and
moving off to the east. As this low continues off to the east
any leftover cloud cover will quickly scatter out with dry air
filtering into ENC this morning. Otherwise the forecast remains
on track today as we struggle to get out of the low 40s.

Mid level shortwave and associated surface low push offshore this
morning while broad upper troughing remains in place across the
Eastern Seaboard. This is forecast to bring yet another reinforcing
shot of CAA and steady NW`rly winds to the region. Any leftover
cloud cover should push well offshore by midday resulting in clear
but cold temps on Tuesday. Expect highs to once again struggle to
get out of the low to mid 40s on Tue which will once again be well
below normal for this time of year.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 245 AM Tuesday...Clear skies and calm winds tonight will
allow temps to crater, likely resulting in the coldest night yet
this season. Temps in the mid to upper teens are likely for
much of mainland NC, a bit "warmer" to low 30s for beaches. The
exception is OBX where a light wind is forecast to persist
through the night preventing true decoupling. This keeps OBX
lows in the low to mid 30s tonight. Fortunately with light to
calm winds in the way of a truly impactful wind chill, there is
no need for a cold weather advisory unless if the forecast temps
trend substantially lower. It will still be a very chilly (and
potentially record breaking) night for the area so dress warm!

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 3 AM Tue...Long term outlook for eastern NC continues to
favor below average temperatures and primarily dry conditions.
A strong cold front will cross the region Thursday. Strong high
pressure and another round of cold temperatures will build in
late week into the weekend. Temps will warm early next week,
with better chances for precip.

A stronger shortwave is forecast to dive out of central Canada,
resulting in cyclogenesis over the Great Lakes and New England
which will drag another strong cold front across the eastern
CONUS...and through eastern NC Thursday. After a cold start Wed,
temps will warm into the upper 40s to low 50s. Ahead of the
boundary, breezy conditions are likely as 35-45 kt 850 mb winds
are mixed towards the surface Wed night into Thu. SW-WSW winds
may gust 40-45 mph along the Outer Banks. This could result in
minor soundside water level rises for the Outer Banks. Much more
mild temps are expected with highs climbing to 55-60 degrees Thu,
though this respite will not last long.

Strong high pressure will build back over the area Friday into
the weekend, resulting in dry weather and below normal temps.
Highs in the 40s Fri and Sat, warming into the 50s Sun and
around 60 on Mon. Sat morning looks to be the coldest with temps
likely falling into the teens inland and low 30s for the Outer
Banks. Another cold front is forecast to approach the area
early next week, though still some uncertainty and timing
differences in the guidance. Will cap pops at low chance for
now. Temps expected to warm to near or slightly above normal Mon
and Tue.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through tonight/...
As of 630 AM Tuesday...VFR conditions continue over ENC through
the period. Through the rest of the morning a mid level
shortwave sweeps across ENC. While not expecting any precip of
significance across the area, ceilings of 5-8 kft have been
observed along an area of isentropic lift. May see a few
flurries but no restrictions to vsbys and certainly no flying
issues. Best chance for a flake over the next couple hours
would be KOAJ and KISO. Cloud deck then quickly scours out this
morning as the shortwave pushes offshore with clear skies once
again forecast for today. Winds increase further after daybreak
today, closer to 5-10 kts with gusts up near 15kts at times
remaining from the NW. Winds quickly become calm after sunset
through the night, but with the continued dry air advection no
fog is expected.

LONG TERM /Wednesday through Saturday/...
As of 3 AM Tue...Prolonged period of VFR conditions expected
through the period, as cold and dry high pressure remains in
control. Airmass will likely be too dry to support fog, although
some reduced visibilities due to steam fog are possible for
terminals near water. Another strong cold front crosses the
terminals Thursday with the potential for wind gusts 20-25 kt.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Tuesday night/...
As of 300 AM Tuesday...A strong mid level shortwave will push
offshore this morning bringing a renewed N`rly surge of winds.
As this occurs winds will increase closer to 15-20 kts with
gusts up to 25 kts across most of our waters. As a result have
SCA`s across all our coastal waters, the Pamlico Sound, and the
Croatan and Roanoke Sounds where the most confidence in seeing
frequent gusts to 25 kts is. SCA`s start at 10 AM on Tuesday and
persist through the rest of the period. Elsewhere a few gusts
up near 25 kts will be possible mainly along the far eastern
Albemarle Sound but gusts wont be frequent enough to warrant
additional SCA`s elsewhere. Seas will remain at 3-5 ft through
Tue morning before increasing slightly to 4-6 ft Tuesday
afternoon in response to the increased winds. Once we get to
Tuesday night, SCA`s will have dropped for inland sounds and all
coastal waters except for those off Hatteras Island. 6 footers
will still be possible 15-20 nm offshore of Hatteras Island
into the early morning hours Wednesday, but should drop below 6
feet before daybreak Wednesday.


LONG TERM /Wednesday through Saturday/...
As of 3 AM Tue...Strong winds and dangerous seas expected to
develop Wednesday night and Thursday. Gale Watches have been
issued for the coastal waters and the Pamlico Sound Wednesday
night into Thursday evening, with the potential for 35-40 kt
gusts. SCAs will likely eventually be needed for the remaining
waters. NW winds 5-15 kt to start off Wed, with winds grad
backing becoming SW, then increasing to 15-20 kt by early
evening. SW-WSW winds will peak at 20-30 kt across the inland
rivers and northern sounds and 25-35 kt across the coastal
waters and Pamlico Sound...with seas building to 6-12 ft
(highest near the Gulf Stream). Slowly improving conditions
Thursday night. Strong high pressure will build over the waters
Fri into the weekend. Breezy NNW winds 15-25 kt Fri with seas
grad subsiding to 3-6 ft. Better conditions expected across the
waters Sat, NW-W winds 10-15 kt and seas 2-4 ft.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 3 AM Tue...Strong SW-WSW winds will develop Wednesday
night and Thursday ahead of a cold front. This may result in
minor water level rises (1-2 ft agl) for soundside Outer Banks.
At this time the greatest threat looks to be for areas from Duck
to Buxton (including Roanoke Island) early Thu morning through
late afternoon.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record Low temperatures for 12/04 (Wednesday)

LOCATION       TEMP/YEAR
New Bern       22/1966  (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras  27/1979  (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville     18/1966  (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City  23/1989  (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston        19/1966  (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville   22/1989  (NCA ASOS)

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EST tonight for AMZ135-150-
     156-158.
     Gale Watch from Wednesday evening through Thursday evening for
     AMZ135-150-152-154-156-158.
     Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EST Wednesday for AMZ152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for AMZ231.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RCF/RJ
SHORT TERM...RJ
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...CQD/RJ
MARINE...CQD/RJ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX
CLIMATE...MHX