Jacksonville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

370
FXUS62 KMHX 070848
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
448 AM EDT Sat Jun 7 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Multiple rounds of strong to severe storms are possible through
the weekend as well as dangerous afternoon heat indices
nearing triple digits. The unsettled pattern will continue
through midweek, keeping rain and strong to severe thunderstorms
in the forecast.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 2 AM Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Strong to severe storms are possible later this afternoon and
evening

- Main severe hazard of concern will be damaging wind gusts

- Dangerous heat indices near 100 degrees across the coastal plain

Quiet conditions will persist through this morning and the first
part of the afternoon. Remnant debris clouds from an MCV to our
west will gradually dissipate later this morning ahead of an
approaching mid-level shortwave and surface trough/cold front,
which will be the main forcing mechanisms for convection later
today.

Southwesterly flow will usher in warm, moist air to generate
MLCAPE values of ~2000-3000 J/kg while deep layer shear will
increase to 30- 35 kt. Model soundings show inverted-V
signatures and DCAPE values well exceeding 1000 J/kg, both of
which support the concern for damaging wind gusts (60+ mph). In
addition, PWATs will increase to ~2", resulting in potentially
locally heavy rainfall under stronger storms.

The earliest activity would be along the seabreeze, but the main
show will occur later in the afternoon and into the evening,
moving in from the north and west across the coastal plain and
working towards the coast. CAMs are painting a messy picture for
today with a mix of discrete cells and linear clusters, some of
which may merge and form larger bowing segments later in the
evening. The window for severe activity will generally be 3-10
PM west of Highway 17 and 5 PM Saturday - 1 AM Sunday east of
Highway 17.

SPC has the entire CWA outlined in a Slight Risk (level 2/5) for
severe weather with the main concern being damaging wind gusts.
Hail remains a possibility, especially within storms able to
develop and sustain stronger updrafts, but this threat is of
less concern than the wind. It should also be mentioned that if
the aforementioned debris clouds linger longer than expected
this morning, this could hinder our destabilization and overall
severe risk.

In addition to the severe thunderstorm risk, there`s concern for
dangerous heat indices across the coastal plain this afternoon.
With high temperatures in the low-90s and dew points in the low-
to mid- 70s, "feels like" temperatures will reach nearly 100
degrees. If participating in outdoor work or recreation, take
frequent breaks and drink plenty of water.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 3:30 AM Saturday...Remaining convective activity should be
pushing off the coast shortly after midnight, ending the severe
threat over land and pivoting full attention to the coastal
waters where strong storms with gusty winds will remain possible
into the early morning hours of Sunday. Lows will be similar to
Friday night with temps bottoming out in the low-70s CWA-wide.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 4 AM Saturday...

Key Messages:

 - Strong to severe storms will be possible Sunday afternoon and
   evening.

 - Unsettled weather will continue through much of the rest of
   the long term.

A mid level shortwave approaches the area with a sfc low
reflection tracking to the north Sunday bringing a threat of
showers and thunderstorms. Could see some strong to potentially
severe storms late Sunday and Sunday evening with moderate
instability (SBCAPE values peak around 2000-2500+ J/Kg) and 0-6k
bulk shear around 30-35 kt. With PW values around 1.75-2",
thunderstorms could produce locally heavy rainfall as well. SPC
has the region in a slight risk (level 2 of 5) for severe storms
Sunday with damaging wind gusts the primary threat. Continued
warm on Sunday with temps a couple of degrees cooler than
Saturday, mainly in the upper 80s to around 90 inland and mid
80s coast.

An upper low digs into the Great Lakes early next week with
cyclonic flow developing across the region and a series of
shortwave troughs advecting through the flow aloft keeping
showers and thunderstorms in the forecast through mid week. The
airmass remains moderately unstable with modest shear most days
and could see a few strong storms, especially during peak
heating. Persistent SW flow aloft will bring a descent tropical
moisture feed into the region with PW values around 1.75-2",
which is above the 90th percentile for this time of year,
keeping a threat for locally heavy rainfall each day. Temps
look to be near to a few degrees above normal early to middle of
next week.

The upper low lifts out late Wednesday with short wave ridging
briefly building in late in the week bringing broad subsidence
aloft and a relative minimum in precip chances. Still sufficient
moisture and instability for widely scattered showers and
thunderstorms during peak heating, especially along the
sea/sound breeze boundaries.


&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Tonight/...
As of 1:30 AM Saturday...VFR flight cats with light
southwesterly winds will persist through the overnight hours,
increasing to 10-15 kt by tomorrow afternoon. The environment
will be conducive to support strong to severe thunderstorms
starting mid-afternoon and continuing into the evening. PROB30
groups have been added for all TAF sites to better highlight the
timeframe of the greatest threat for gusty winds and hail.
Conditions will improve from west to east tomorrow night with
convection likely east of all TAF sites by the end of the
period.

LONG TERM /Saturday afternoon through Wednesday/...
As of 415 AM Saturday...An unsettled pattern will prevail
through much of the long term keeping periods of showers and
thunderstorms bringing periods of sub-VFR conditions across the
region. There will also be the threat for late night/early
morning fog each day as well.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /Through Tonight/...
As of 3:45 AM Saturday...10-15 kt southwesterly winds will increase
to 15-20 kt tonight with 2-4 ft seas building to 3-5 ft south of
Oregon Inlet. Conditions will be borderline SCA, mainly south of
Cape Hatteras, with occasional gusts to 25 kt for a few hours
tonight. Later this evening (~8 PM Sat - 1 AM Sun),
thunderstorms will impact the waters with gusty winds and heavy
rainfall being the main concerns. Conditions will improve after
this convective activity moves out of the FA with southwest
winds dropping back to 10-15 kt.


LONG TERM /Saturday though Wednesday/...
As of 430 AM Saturday...SW winds around 10-20 kt expected to
prevail through Monday with strongest winds during afternoon and
evening hours when the diurnal thermal gradient is the
tightest and could see a few gusts to around 25 kt. Another
cold front approached from the NW on Tuesday serving to tighten
the gradient a bit more and could see low end SCA conditions
develop, especially across the coastal waters south of Oregon
Inlet with gusts to around 25 kt. Seas generally around 3-5 ft
through Sunday and Monday, then up to 6 ft seas across the
southern/central waters on Tuesday. SW winds expected to relax
Wednesday to around 10-15 kt with seas subsiding to 2-4 ft.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RTE/OJC
SHORT TERM...OJC
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...SK/OJC
MARINE...RTE/SK/OJC